The contribution of emission sources to the future air pollution disease burden in China

Abstract Air pollution exposure is a leading public health problem in China. Despite recent air quality improvements, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) remains large, the associated disease burden substantial, and population ageing projected to increase susceptibility disease. Here, we used emulators of regional chemical transport model quantify impacts future emission scenarios on We estimated how key sectors contribute these from exposure. found that PM declines all across China over 2020–2050, with reductions 15% under current legislation, 36% when exploiting full potential pollutant reduction technologies, 39% technical mitigation combined controls for climate mitigation. However, means legislation (CLE) increases by 17% 2050 relative 2020. In comparison CLE 2050, application best technologies provides substantial benefits, reducing 16%, avoiding 536 600 (95% uncertainty interval, 95UI: 497 800–573 300) premature deaths per year. These benefits are mainly due industrial (43%) residential (30%) emissions. Climate efforts leads an additional 2% burden, 57 000 (95UI: 52 800–61 100) Up 90% 2020–2050 already achieved 2030, assuming efficient implementation enforcement currently committed policies sectors. Achieving after 2030 will require further tightening limits regulated sectors, addressing other sources including agriculture waste management, international coordinated action mitigate Asia.